The Demise of Multiculturalism in Europe

[ If there were only one religion in England there would be danger of despotism, if there were two, they would cut each other's throats, but there are thirty, and they live in peace and happiness ] ----- Voltaire (1694-1778) French writer and historian

Across Europe, politicians have been questioning multiculturalism and urging more assimilation policies. The result has been greater emphasis on civic integration, linking of family reunification to integration policy and new rhetorical emphasis on loyalty, integration and commitment to European values.

Multiculturalism means different things to different people:

-- As a value. Relativists feel that all cultures are of equal value and it is impossible to reject particular aspects of cultures as unacceptable. This understanding of multiculturalism is shared by the ideological extremes.

-- As aid to integration. This is the version of multiculturalism traditionally adopted in the Netherlands, though it is now being rolled back. It holds that migrants best integrate through their own language and culture rather than that of the receiving state.

-- "Inclusive" multiculturalism. A third concept holds that migrants may maintain those aspects of their culture that do not violate the law or basic values of the receiving country. It is widely espoused in the United Kingdom and Canada.

There has been a recent change in tone in Europe concerning migrants' commitment to Europe's liberal values, with a new emphasis on integration. These developments have been accompanied by a change in government approaches to multiculturalism:

-- United Kingdom. A U.S.-style citizenship ceremony was introduced in 2004; from 2005, naturalizing migrants have had to pass language and citizenship tests.

-- France. In 2004, a ban was imposed on the wearing of Muslim hijab in school. Policymakers also adopted a "social integration contract."

-- Germany. The government provides for 600 hours of language training and 30 hours of civics instruction for migrants. Head scarves have been banned for teachers in six German states. Berlin is currently debating new naturalization tests.

-- Netherlands. Policymakers have explicitly embraced integration as a policy aim. Both new and settled immigrants are now required to pass an integration test. Rules on family reunification were also tightened.

-- Denmark. All new migrants attend obligatory civics and language classes. Their family members must wait three years to enter the country and must pass an "attachment test."

-- Sweden. The new integration minister is proposing a ban on veils for girls under 15; examination of young girls to detect signs of genital mutilation; an end to arranged marriages; and a ban on funding for religious schools.

The far right in Europe has enjoyed a renaissance over the past 30 years, driven by resentment of the growing powers of the European Union and by rejection of the "multiculturalism" that has accompanied rapid immigration from the developing world.

Political parties opposing immigration and integration have done well in elections in recent years -- and beyond them, neo-fascist and "national socialist" groups have become well-established across the continent, including in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Scandinavia, Hungary and the United Kingdom.
Most of those belonging to such groups would not contemplate the sort of carnage that occurred in Norway on Friday, but they would probably sympathize with what appears to have been the manifesto of the alleged assailant, Anders Behring Breivik.

Breivik claimed that "cultural Marxism" had morally degraded Europe, and purportedly wrote: "You cannot defeat Islamisation or halt/reverse the Islamic colonization of Western Europe without first removing the political doctrines manifested through multiculturalism/cultural Marxism."

Elsewhere he said: "One of the most widespread manifestations of the craziness of our world is multiculturalism."

There are plenty of white supremacists who subscribe to such views on websites like stormfront.org, whose motto is "White Pride Worldwide." On the site's discussion forums, one thread entitled "Scandinavia Struggles Against Multiculturalism" warns that "a united Europe could become a strong wall against Islamic 'cultural' invasion, but instead Europe has become a gateway for Islam.

" The thread, which has been active for several years, contains reports of alleged rapes by immigrants, warns about the low birth rate of native-born Scandinavians and links to videos of far-right protests.

Another thread is titled: "Please Nordic people, keep white Scandinavia." And the day before Friday's attack, one forum participant wrote: "Norway must wake up and deport non-whites."

In his own writings, the alleged Norwegian bomber appears to have complained about the "Muslim ghettofication process'" in Oslo -- a term also used by the far right in Denmark.

While these trends are most pronounced in Europe, they are also occurring elsewhere. For example, in Australia, an official policy of multiculturalism was abandoned in the 1990s.

By contrast, multiculturalism has failed to come under serious pressure in Canada. The reason for this has to do with identity: Multiculturalism in Canada is entrenched in the constitution and is viewed by Canadians as a fundamental basis for differentiating itself from the putatively assimilationist United States.Furthermore, the United States, Canada and Australia have not had the same experience of socio-economic failure among ethnic minority communities that has been seen in Europe, due in part to the points system used in Australia and Canada to ensure that migrants have high educational levels. These countries thus face neither the need nor the demand for increased attention to civic integration.

Both the rejection of multiculturalism as a substantive integration policy and the turn toward civic integration in Europe pre-dated the terrorist attacks in the United States, Madrid and London.

They are largely a reaction to socio-economic failure among ethnic minority communities. The policies this change of mind engendered are likely to remain. The rhetorical shift is more likely to be a contingent feature of integration politics. It will depend on whether Islamic extremism continues.

Yet there are limits to retrenchment as far as multiculturalism is concerned. One of its core of ideas--that individuals are free to retain their cultural attachments so long as they do not interfere with their integration into society--remains. More important, some rights that might be thought of as "multicultural"--the right to practice one's religion, to bring one's family members together, to join religious and cultural associations--are individual rights that are basic to liberal societies.

The turn from multiculturalism in Europe is apparent in the realms of both policy and rhetoric. While the new interest in integrationist policies in Europe reflects the economic and educational failure of Europe's ethnic minority communities, the rhetorical shift against multiculturalism reflects the rise in Islamic extremism. These shifts are likely to be permanent. However, they do not amount to a wholesale rejection of all aspects of multiculturalism.

Further Reading:

How Multiculturalism Killed Europe
Multiculturalism and the Dynamics of Modern Civilization
Multiculturalism in World History
BBC Article : Germans argue over integration

Russia's Cup of Woes: Declining Population and Growing Chinese Illegal Infiltration

Russia's population peaked in the early 1990s (at the time of the end of the Soviet Union) with about 148 million people in the country. Today, Russia's population is approximately 143 million. 

Russia's population will decline from the current 143 million to a mere 111 million by 2050, a loss of more than 30 million people and a decrease of more than 20%.

 

The primary causes of Russia's population decrease and loss of about 700,000 to 800,000 citizens each year are a high death rate, low birth rate, high rate of abortions, and a low level of immigration.

High Death Rate

 

Russia has a very high death rate of 15 deaths per 1000 people per year. This is far higher than the world's average death rate of just under 9. The death rate in the U.S. is 8 per 1000 and for the United Kingdom it's 10 per 1000. Alcohol-related deaths in Russia are very high and alcohol-related emergencies represent the bulk of emergency room visits in the country.

With this high death rate, Russian life expectancy is low - the World Health Organization estimates the life expectancy of Russian men at 59 years while women's life expectancy is considerably better at 72 years. This difference is primarily a result of high rates of alcoholism among males.

Low Birth Rate

 

Understandably, due these high rates of alcoholism and economic hardship, women feel less than encouraged to have children in Russia.

Russia's total fertility rate is low at 1.3 births per woman. This number represents the number of children each Russian woman has during her lifetime. A replacement total fertility rate to maintain a stable population is 2.1 births per woman. Obviously, with such a low total fertility rate Russian women are contributing to a declining population.

The birth rate in the country is also quite low; the crude birth rate is 10 births per 1000 people. The world average is just over 20 per 1000 and in the U.S. the rate is 14 per 1000.

 Abortion

 

During the Soviet era, abortion was quite common and was utilized as a method of birth control. That technique remains common and quite popular today, keeping the country's birth rate exceptionally low. According to a Russian news source, there are more abortions than births in Russia.The online news source mosnews.com reported that in 2004 1.6 million women had abortions in Russia while 1.5 million gave birth. In 2003, the BBC reported that Russia had, "13 terminations for every 10 live births."

  

Immigration

Additionally, immigration into Russia is low - immigrants are primarily a trickle of ethnic Russians moving out of former republics (but now independent countries) of the Soviet Union. Brain drain and emigration from Russia to Western Europe and other parts of the world is high as native Russians seek to better their economic situation.

Putin himself explored the issues surrounding the low birth rate during his speech, asking "What has prevented a young family, a young woman, from making this decision? The answers are obvious: low incomes, a lack of normal housing, doubts about the level of medical services and quality education. At times, there are doubts about the ability to provide enough food."

Russia is facing a demographic crisis so dire that its population could shrink by half within 50 years. The only obvious solution – to encourage youthful immigrants from overpopulated Asian neighbors such as China – is so politically sensitive that Russian leaders refuse to even discuss it.

Russia's challenge is a double whammy. Like most of the developed world, birthrates have fallen far below levels that would sustain the population. At the same time, Russian death rates, particularly among working-age males, have skyrocketed due to post-Soviet poverty, substance abuse, disease, stress and other ills.

Russia's population has fallen from 149 million a decade ago to just over 144 million today. Male life expectancy now stands at 59 years, with the average Russian woman living 72 years.Demographic experts say that the country is losing one million of its population annually, and the nosedive is accelerating.

"Whole regions of Siberia and the Russian far east are already depopulated, and new deserts are appearing even in former 'black earth' regions of central Russia," says Lev Gudkov, a demographer with the independent Russian Center for Public Opinion Research. "We will not be able to maintain our industry, agriculture or our armed forces."

Since the USSR's collapse, mortality rates among young males have risen to levels never before seen in peacetime. Mr. Gudkov predicts that there could be one pensioner for every worker in Russia within 20 years. "Not even a rich economy could survive that kind of strain," he says.

Russian women, who tend to be as well-educated and career-oriented as their Western counterparts, have been been having fewer children since the 1970s. Births now stand at 1.1 per woman, far short of the 2.4 babies each that would be needed to stabilize the population.

Russian nationalists have widely blamed the demographic crisis on women, and their proposed solutions boil down to removing them from the labor market and sending them home to have more children.

Most Western countries compensate for lower birthrates by permitting temporary and permanent forms of immigration, which provide both skilled and unskilled workers to keep economies growing and tax revenues flush.

But even after the fall of the Iron Curtain, Russia has resisted that solution."The only acceptable sources of immigrants for us are the Russian-speaking populations of former Soviet countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States," says Yevgeny Krasinyev, head of migration studies at the official Institute of Social and Economic Population Studies in Moscow.

The severity of Russia's population decline has been masked by an influx of mainly ethnic Russian immigrants from the former Soviet states of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Baltics, but the flow from the CIS is slowing to a trickle. Alexander Belyakov, a pro-Kremlin parliamentarian and head of the Duma's Resources Committee, says: "We will encourage people to come from CIS countries, but Russia does not need any other immigrants."

Case Study: Pogran-Petrovka in Eastern Siberia

"They spread like jellyfish, penetrating everywhere - and gradually you find that without a shot being fired, they've simply taken over." The grey-bearded Cossack in his 19th-century military uniform - tight khaki tunic, blue trousers with yellow stripe - gestured up into the thickly wooded hills behind us. Nothing moved. But over the top of the ridge lay the country Vladimir Pozhidayev was referring to: China, which is flexing its economic muscle in the Russian Far East and which locals fear may soon stage a demographic takeover too.

Mr Pozhidayev, 58, lives in the village of Pogran-Petrovka. It is the first in what the authorities intend to be a chain of half-agricultural, half-military settlements guarding the long, winding frontier between China and Russia's maritime territory, nearly 6,000 miles from Moscow. Cossacks spearheaded Russia's conquest of Siberia and the northern Pacific coast in Tsarist times. Now the authoritarian regional governor, Yevgeny Nazdratenko, is encouraging them to return to their old role as an elite military caste, helping to protect the fringes of empire from hostile incursion.

At Pogran-Petrovka, they have been given an abandoned army base, a series of crumbling concrete barracks in the wilderness. Their job is to mount joint patrols with regular border troops and establish a self-sufficient community to be part of a human shield against China.

So far, the settlement consists of two families, half-a-dozen single men, a few turkeys and a large pig, and Mr Pozhidayev's only confrontations have been with Chinese poachers. They slip over the border in search of bears and tigers - now extinct in China itself - whose parts are prized for use in medicines and aphrodisiacs. Ginseng roots, frogs and jellyfish are also disappearing from the untamed forests and coasts of the Russian Far East. They end up, at exorbitant prices, in restaurants and pharmacies south of the border.

Mr Pozhidayev, a former sable hunter, and his comrades have plans to bring 60 families to Pogran-Petrovka. Their main task, they believe, will be to stop illegal immigrants; almost everyone in the maritime territory is convinced that the Chinese want more living space. In the whole of the Russian Far East, they point out, there are fewer than 10 million souls scattered across thousands of square miles. Just over the border, in the three northernmost provinces of China, there are at least 250 million.

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 2,400-mile border with China was tightly sealed, a legacy of the bitter feud between the two Communist giants in the 1960s and 70s. The capital of the region, the great Pacific port and naval base of Vladivostok, was a completely closed city. Even Russians from other parts of the country needed special permission to visit.

Nowadays, Chinese is spoken everywhere in Vladivostok. In the past 10 years, traders from across the border have poured in, finding an eager market for the cheap consumer goods that Russian industry has never been able to supply. At Ussuriisk, an hour's drive from the regional capital, the "Chinese bazaar" is more like a separate town. The market is so busy it stays open all night. There are 2,000 traders living semi-permanently in metal freight containers above their stalls of fake designer-label trainers and anoraks. They have their own restaurants, a sauna - even a casino.

Families in the region, where an average salary can be as low as £30 a month, wear nothing but Chinese clothes. In Vladivostok, hotels depend heavily on tourists from over the border, and the new Chinese restaurants do good business. Yet almost no one has a good word for the Chinese. "They behave as though they own the town," said Irina Gimilshtein, a tour guide. "If Russia is not strong, there is a threat that we will lose this territory."

In fact, the present-day maritime territory was largely uninhabited when the Russians arrived. China makes no official claim to the area, and the head of China's parliament, Li Peng, has been welcomed in Vladivostok by Governor Nazdratenko. Official estimates of the number of Chinese settling illegally in the region every year are as low as 3,000 to 4,000, yet it plainly suits the authorities' purposes to pander to local paranoia.

Mr Nazdratenko has made a point of travelling to one of the few tiny pockets of disputed territory along the border, vowing to defend it with his own breast. Newspapers, in a region where the media is tightly controlled, revel in headlines such as "Conquistadors from the Heavenly Kingdom". And Sergei Pushkaryov, head of the federal migration service in Vladivostok, points to a map of border control points and says firmly: "It's us or them."

Mr Pushkaryov's great-grandparents were among the pioneers who helped to settle the maritime territory in the early 1900s. In those days, peasants were given grants of farming land. Now, in an attempt to bolster the Russian population, Mr Pushkaryov wants to revive the scheme in a different form, offering subsidies to families prepared to start a new life in the Far East. He admits, though, that it will be difficult to attract newcomers to a region where whole towns are often deprived of hot water and heating in winter because of the authorities' huge debts to the local energy company.

Apart from visiting American sailors, and the fact that almost all cars are second-hand Japanese imports, built to drive on the left, there is not much cosmopolitan about Vladivostok. But the local planning chief, Svetlana Parinova, doesn't see a problem. "Investors want quick returns," she says. "We need help for basic industries. The idea that we might receive more from across the Pacific than we can from Moscow - I doubt that very much."

Mrs Parinova admits that just a few hours down the road, on the Chinese side of the border, former villages have been transformed into towns of gleaming skyscrapers, while the Russian Far East remains as poor and miserable as it ever was. But she can see no way of sharing in the boom other than becoming part of China, which she naturally rejects. "One day," she says, "we'll build a paradise here too. But it'll be on our own terms." It is a sentiment any patriotic Cossack would heartily agree with.

Conclusion

Experts say that Russia not only has no immigration strategy, it has no effective laws to govern the issue at all. "There are only prohibitions," says Viktor Voronkov, director of the St. Petersburg Center for Independent Social Research. "This guarantees that most immigration remains illegal, a boon to only the black market and the criminalized part of society." Tens of thousands of migrant construction workers, from Ukraine, Moldova, and other CIS countries fuel a growing housing boom on Moscow's outskirts, yet few have legal status in Russia or pay any taxes.

Mr. Vorontkov says the main obstacle to rational immigration guidelines is a deep fear of being overwhelmed by outsiders. "Xenophobia remains very strong, not only in the Russian street but at the highest levels of officialdom as well," he says. Most feared of all is China, sparsely populated Siberia's teeming neighbor. Experts say there are already as many as 200,000 Chinese living and working in Russia, mostly in trade and small manufacture.

Even among the most open-minded Russian experts, the idea of inviting Chinese workers to till Siberia's abandoned farmlands or lend their entrepreneurial skills to Russia's depressed cities seems dangerous. "The situation on the Chinese border is already out-of-control due to illegal immigration. Russia needs to protect itself," says Mr. Krasinyev. "Letting Chinese workers come in large numbers looks like a solution, but is it really?" says Vladimir Iontsev, a Moscow professor of demography. "You have to ask yourself, would Russia still be Russia?"

Further Reference: 

Book: Chinese Migration to the Russian Far East: A Human Security Dilemma

Russia's Far East: A Region at Risk 

The Russian Far East : The New China Century

The Russian Far East & China

China & India : Misunderstandings amidst Understanding....

When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited New Delhi on 15–17 December 2010 he found the political mood quite different from when he was last there nearly five years ago. While it is often claimed that Asia is large enough to accommodate the simultaneous emergence of both China and India as rising powers, India is visibly concerned over Beijing's growing attention to South Asia, and especially over China's more assertive approach to a longstanding border dispute. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in September that 'China would like to have a foothold in South Asia and we have to reflect on this reality… It's important to be prepared.'

Rising neighbors

India and China, which account for nearly 40% of the world's population and boast the fastest-growing major economies, have long competed with each other for influence in Asia. China refused to accept the McMahon Line drawn in 1914 during British rule of India as the boundary separating India's far northeastern territory from Tibet. A brief flirtation between the two countries in the 1950s quickly soured over the border dispute, resulting in a three-week war in the high Himalayas in 1962 in which India suffered a humiliating defeat. This left a legacy of mutual mistrust and suspicion, even though diplomatic relations were re-established in 1976.

Following Rajiv Gandhi's visit to Beijing in 1988, the first by an Indian prime minister in 34 years, the countries decided to bolster economic and trade relations, and keep political tensions and border disputes in the background. The Indian military reluctantly downgraded its perception of China from being a 'threat' to a 'challenge'. As economic reform has taken hold in both countries bilateral trade has risen dramatically, from $1 billion in 1994 to an expected $60bn this year – China was India's largest trading partner in 2008.

The two governments work together on multilateral issues, for example during the Copenhagen climate-change summit in December 2009 and at meetings of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) emerging economies. Under American pressure, China allowed a critical exemption for nuclear exports to India to be granted by the Nuclear Suppliers Group in September 2008, paving the way for the landmark India–US civil-nuclear deal the following month. China also backed India's successful candidacy for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council from January 2011.

Mutual wariness

Yet New Delhi's perspective towards Beijing is hardening. Although India continues to view the rise of China as essentially peaceful, it has begun to perceive it as a key security 'challenge and priority'. India is concerned over what it sees as China's recent assertiveness towards the border dispute and a change in Beijing's policy towards India's dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir. It is also suspicious of China's bolstered military presence in Tibet and its involvement in infrastructural projects, such as ports in South Asian countries.India is apprehensive that these developments amount to an attempt to contain and encircle it strategically, while enabling China to gain permanent access to the Indian Ocean for the first time.

In the past, China's perceived failure to pay attention to India had provoked deep resentment among the Indian strategic elite. But more recently, China has begun to look warily at India. It is suspicious of the activities of the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader who is normally resident in India, in relation to protests against Chinese rule in Tibet. At the same time, China is concerned over India's developing strategic partnership with the US. Beijing sees the landmark India–US civil-nuclear deal as an American attempt to promote a counterweight to China, especially in the Indian Ocean.

Border dispute

The specific argument between the two countries concerns the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between the two countries. For India, the boundary separating Arunachal Pradesh state and China's Tibet Autonomous Region is demarcated by the LAC. However, China claims that most of Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory as an extension of southern Tibet.

There have been regular border incursions across the LAC by both sides, with occasional clashes, although no shots have been fired since the late 1960s. Fourteen rounds of negotiations between two high-level special representatives have moved slowly, with the last meeting taking place in November 2010 after a hiatus of more than a year. On 6 July 2006, the two countries re-opened border trade through the 4,300m-high Himalayan pass of Nathu La after 44 years.

India was enraged by Beijing's criticism of Prime Minister Singh's visit to Arunachal Pradesh in October 2009, which it perceived as a personal attack on Singh.The Chinese government was in turn infuriated when, perhaps not coincidentally, the Dalai Lama visited Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh the following month.

India is concerned over the build-up of Chinese military capabilities and stepped-up construction of infrastructure such as roads and railway lines near the LAC, providing China's armed forces with greater communication and access to the region. The world's highest railway line from Xining, Qinghai Province, to Lhasa, Tibet, was opened in 2006 and is now being extended to Xigaze and Nyingchi in southwestern and southeastern Tibet respectively. In July 2010, the highest civilian airport in the world was opened at Gunsa in Tibet's Ngari Prefecture, and an airport in Xigaze is scheduled to open soon.

India is also concerned over unexplained Chinese constructions on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which later becomes the Brahmaputra. In late 2009 it emerged that China had begun to build a dam at Zangmu, but it has reassured India that it will have no impact on the downstream flow of the river through Arunachal Pradesh. Meanwhile, China unsuccessfully attemptedto block a $2.9bn Asian Development Bank loan to India last year, because it included $60 million funding for a watershed project in Arunachal Pradesh.

China and South Asia

China and Pakistan have a longstanding and close relationship, but Beijing has maintained a policy of neutrality on the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. However, there are indications of a shift. To New Delhi's annoyance, China has for the past few months been refusing to grant normal visas to Indian nationals of Kashmiri origin travelling to China, insisting that their visas be stapled, not stamped, on their passports. The implication is that Beijing is treating Indian-held Kashmir as disputed territory.

India suspended high-level defence exchanges with China in August, following China's denial of a visa to a three-star Indian general responsible for troops in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.

Also in August, it was reported that over 7,000 People's Liberation Army soldiers had been deployed in Gilgit-Baltistan, the mountainous territory in the far north of Pakistan, to assist ongoing work on road and rail access between China and Pakistan. Although the Chinese and Pakistani governments denied these reports, India countered by publicly stating that Gilgit-Baltistan was part of India, occupied by Pakistan since 1948.

At the same time, India is concerned over Chinese involvement in construction of deep-water ports in South Asia that could potentially have military uses. Projects include providing funding for the construction of Gwadar port in Pakistan's Baluchistan province, the development of ports, as well as oil and gas pipelines in Myanmar, and the financing of Sri Lanka's Hambantota port and development zone. China has also shown an interest in investing in Bangladesh's largest port of Chittagong.

India's Response

In an attempt to counter China's assertiveness and growing influence in South Asia, India has responded with a mix of rhetorical, diplomatic, infrastructural and defence-led initiatives while still pursuing efforts at bilateral confidence-building.

On the diplomatic front, India is seeking to build key strategic relations with countries in Southeast and East Asia, especially Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore. In November, the first military-to-military talks between India and Japan took place, building on a security-cooperation agreement signed in 2009. Indian defence exchanges and cooperation with Singapore and Vietnam take place regularly.

The first visit of an Indian defence minister to South Korea took place two months ago, and agreements on joint military training and development of defence equipment were signed. At the same time, India disregarded Beijing’s démarches not to attend the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for jailed Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in Oslo.

India is also responding to China's infrastructural development in Tibet by stepping up the building of roads in Arunachal Pradesh. In August 2009, Defence Minister A.K. Antony announced that nearly $200m had been allocated in 2009–10 to build roads near the LAC, twice what had been spent the previous year. The Indian Supreme Court recently gave clearance for the construction of two strategic roads near the tri-junction of Tibet, Bhutan and Sikkim, due for completion in 2012.

India's military chiefs have begun to voice concerns over China's rising military proficiency. In August 2009, then-Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehtastated that India had neither the military capability nor the intention 'to match China force for force' and advocated the use of maritime-domain awareness and network-centric operations 'along with a reliable stand-off deterrent' as a means of coping with China's military rise. Three months later, Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Pradeep Vasant Naik warned that India's aircraft strength was inadequate and was only a third of China's.

In December 2009, then-Chief of Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor went further and reportedly stated that the army was revising its doctrine so as to be able to fight a two-front war with both Pakistan and China. His successor, General Vijay Kumar Singh, was more restrained last month when he talked of Pakistan and China being the 'two major irritants' to India's national security.

This reportedly prompted a revision of the Indian military's perception of China from a 'challenge' to a 'long-term threat'. In December 2009, then-National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan also accused Chinese hackers of launching a foiled cyber attack against the prime minister's office. Last April, Defence Minister Antony called for a crisis-management action plan to counter cyber attacks and cyber terrorism.

India is in the final stages of raising two new infantry mountain divisions of 36,000 troops each, and is reported to be raising an artillery brigade for Arunachal Pradesh.

In addition, it is raising two new battalions of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim scouts, comprising 5,000 locally recruited troops each. Meanwhile, the Indian air force has begun to deploy two squadrons of modern Sukhoi-30MKI combat fighters to Tezpur air base in eastern India, close to the LAC, for the first time. It is also upgrading six airstrips in Arunachal Pradesh to improve troop mobility.Designed as part of its deterrent against China, the first test of India's 5,000km-range Agni-V nuclear-capable ballistic missile is expected next year.

The Indian navy plans to strengthen its fleet on the eastern seafront, including the basing of an aircraft carrier in the Bay of Bengal. It reportedly plans to build a base in the east for its prospective nuclear-submarine force. At the same time, India has stepped up naval interactions and engagements with the US and Southeast and East Asia.

An increased Chinese naval presence and activities in the Indian Ocean are being countered by bilateral Indian naval exercises with Singapore and Vietnam in the South China Sea, and with the US, along with Japan, off Okinawa. Moreover, the Indian navy's August 2009 Maritime Doctrine made a distinction between primary and secondary areas of maritime interest.

Among secondary areas it included for the first time the 'South China Sea, other areas of [the] West Pacific Ocean and friendly littoral countries located herein', along with 'other areas of national interest based on considerations of diaspora and overseas investments'.

While the Indian navy now regularly exercises and trains with Western and Southeast Asian navies, the Chinese navy is enhancing its relations with Pakistan's navy. The tendency for each to be excluded from the international engagements of the other has raised concerns over an emerging naval rivalry in the Indian Ocean.

High-speed rail link to India

China wants to build a high-speed rail line connecting its south-western city of Kunming to New Delhi and Lahore, part of a 17-country transcontinental rail project, officials familiar with the plans told The Hindu.After years of much talk and little progress, China has finally reached agreements with several Central Asian countries and given the green signal to its ambitious pan-Asian high-speed rail link, which envisages connecting cities in China to Central Asia, Iran, Europe, Russia and Singapore.

One proposal involves a line running from Kunming, in south-western Yunnan province, to New Delhi, Lahore and on to Tehran, according to Wang Mengshu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and one of the country's leading railway consultants.“India is a relatively small country with a huge population,” he told The Hindu in an interview. “It will be too costly to build highways for India, so our high-speed rail link project will improve transportation efficiency and resources. I am confident we can finally reach an agreement, which will greatly help exports to the Indian Ocean direction.” He said talks with Indian officials were “friendly,” and they had been “welcoming” of the idea.

The pan-Asian high-speed rail link has been talked about by Chinese officials since 1995, but appears to have finally begun to gather momentum following negotiations last year, and after China's own success in launching a domestic high-speed rail network.In December, China opened what it described as the world's fastest rail link, between Wuhan and southern Guangzhou, where a 350 kmph-speed train covers the 1,068 km journey in three hours, down from 10.5 hours. By 2012, China will have opened 42 high-speed lines, covering 13,000 km of its total railway coverage of 110,000 km. When completed, China's will be the world's largest high-speed railway network.

The Three lines

China now intends to extend this rail network far beyond its borders. The plan involves constructing three high-speed lines: a southern line through Cambodia, Vietnam and extending to Singapore; a western line from the country's Xinjiang region through Central Asia; and the third running north through the gas reserves of Russia to eastern Europe, and possibly even all the way to the United Kingdom. The proposed line to India, running through Myanmar, will join with the central line at Tehran.

Mr. Wang told The Hindu that China had reached an agreement with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, while negotiations with other countries “are now going smoothly.” Construction work has begun on the southern line, which starts from Kunming and runs to Singapore.Negotiations with the military government in Myanmar and also with Singapore, where the southern line will end, had progressed positively, he said.

When completed, the plan will give China unprecedented access to energy resources in many of these countries.A spokesperson at the Ministry of Railways told the official Global Times newspaper on Friday that the Chinese government has initiated talks with some of the 17 countries involved in the project. China will bear the brunt of the cost of building the high-speed rail lines in many of the countries involved, but will in return get access to energy resources in a proposed “resources for technology” arrangement, the Global Times reported.

Mr. Wang, also a professor of civil engineering at the Beijing Jiaotong University, said in the best-case scenario the rail link would be completed by 2025, when a train journey from Beijing to London would only take two days.But two factors that have continued to hinder the project, Mr. Wang said, were differences in the standard of railway track used in some countries, as well as track renovations needed in some areas. In the southern line, for instance, more than 650 km of track need renovation in Cambodia, while some sections in Myanmar were below the required standards. The rail lines that will be constructed would be 1,435 mm standard gauge lines, he said, and “are to be exclusively used by the new high-speed transportation.”

Future risks

Even as preparations were made for Wen Jiabao's visit to India, both countries are wary of each other while attempting to build mutual confidence. The unprecedented growth in bilateral trade has not yet had the effect of building stability in the political relationship, though a communications 'hotline' between the two nations' leaders is expected to be put into operation shortly.

India is aware that it cannot afford to get into an arms race with China, and there is no appetite on either side to risk economic growth and development. Although the likelihood of a conflict between the two countries is extremely low, the possibility of border skirmishes cannot be ruled out. In such an environment, there is plenty of scope for misunderstandings.

Further Reference:

India-China Relations

Why Indo-China ties will be more favourable than Sino-Pak 

China's Decision for War with India in 1962 by John W. Garver

India-China Relations : A Military Perspective